Week 7 NFL Betting Primer: Best Over/Under, Spread, Teaser, and Prop Bets

It was only inevitable to endure our first below-.500 week of the campaign. The key is to put that behind us and move on.

Spreads: 4-1

Over/Unders: 2-2-1

Teasers: 4-1

Props: 2-3

Overall Record: 12-7-1, +3.05 units

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under: 46

The apparent disrespect of legitimate MVP candidate Lamar Jackson continues.

Well, not based on the spread, with Baltimore being a solid 7-point favorite at home. That number is pretty fair. But based on the total, the linesmakers could be giving Jackson a wee bit more credit.

After all, since the former Louisville Cardinal’s first full season as QB1 two years ago, the Ravens are routinely scoring nearly 30 points per game. Their weekly scoring output actually bumps up to above that mark when he’s taken the field at M&T Bank Stadium from 2019 on.

This sample size consists of 18 outings and there’s been more than enough to see Jackson is a real menace for any opposing defense. He’s been consistently effective here, too, as the Ravens have scored at least 20 points in every regular season bout started by Jackson at home.

Based on this, we have to assume the AFC North division leaders will churn out 20 or more — especially while coming in hot, having won five in a row. Given how the Ravens averaged 32.2 points in Jackson’s five previous career meetings opposite the Bengals, figure their final point tally will be closer to the average.

Now we just have to decipher if Cincy can at least hang around, and if you’ve seen them even once this year, the answer appears to be yes. They are a revelation.

Of course, much of the transformation from “bottom feeder” to “genuine contender” is due to drafting franchise quarterback Joe Burrow last year. Despite suffering a torn ACL more than midway through his freshman season, Burrow hasn’t skipped a beat and — get this — is actually tied with Tom Brady (!) for the league’s sixth-best passer rating (107.9).

The 24-year-old wields an impressive cast of weapons that can help sustain his illuminating numbers. Rookie (and former college teammate of Burrow’s) Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins compose one of the NFL’s most dangerous wide-receiver trios, while Joe Mixon is a quality running back to lean on.

Above all, let’s factor in that this week’s date against Baltimore is the franchise’s most important in damn well more than a decade and I don’t see Burrow laying an egg. His trademark confidence and swagger is one trait that made him so appealing when he was just a prospect.

So long as the Ravens maintain their hot run and bring the points like they usually do anyway, all we need is for the Bengals to stick in this and that’s a favorable scenario to anticipate. Additionally, if they pull off the upset, that would be because they had to score in bunches, pointing to an over as well. In case of a 24-21/28-17 outcome, I’m buying a full point to be sure.

Pick: OVER 45 (-130)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans

Spread: Chiefs -4.5/Titans +4.5

A recent AFC Championship Game rematch is what stands between the Chiefs and being above .500 again for the first time since starting the campaign 1-0.

I love spots like these for good teams that are clearly on the way up, yet only have a small spread in front of them for their next matchup. That makes KC a viable wager.

Don’t get me wrong; Tennessee is a true force to be reckoned with in the AFC, especially after their eye-opening win last week on Monday Night Football against Buffalo, who just handily took care of the Chiefs one week earlier by three scores.

At the same time, that defeat probably represented rock bottom for the reigning five-time AFC West champs. Kansas City’s decisive win over Washington in Week 6 seems to have rejuvenated the club and may springboard them on a serious run.

For me, the big thing about this 3-3 predicament the Chiefs are in is it can be tied completely to turnovers. They actually have more giveaways than any other NFL team (14), resulting in the second-worst turnover differential (-8) that pits them above only the Jags in that department.

Such unusual tendencies can’t possibly continue by a team led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Just no way. And good news for KC here is they are getting an opponent that is one of eight clubs to be averaging less than one takeaway per week. The Titans have five.

The Chiefs going on another one of their signature runs just seems inevitable. I’m calling for that to roll through Music City, but I’m also buying a half-point in case this pans out as a tight four-point affair.

Pick: CHIEFS -4 (-120)

Bengals +7 —> +20

Rams -15 —> -2

Cardinals -17.5 —> -4.5

Colts +4.5 —> +17.5

We already did the runaround on Bengals-Ravens for over/under of the week. No need rehashing in full detail again why Joe Burrow should at least hang around in Cincinnati’s biggest game in several years.

From the 4 p.m. window comes a pair of heavily-favored teams. The Rams and Cardinals are two of three double-digit favorites this week, in fact, and don’t require much thought to include here.

Arizona is getting a tasty meal at home in the form of Davis Mills that they should triumph easily. LA, meanwhile, draws the winless Lions in an intriguing contest that’ll see Matthew Stafford host his old mates. Don’t think he’ll squander that one.

Lastly, let’s grab the Colts on Sunday Night Football in a road outing at San Francisco. Indy is coming off their best overall performance of the year, albeit against Davis Mills, but still, it was huge for a group that sorely needed it. Now they just have to lose by 17 points or less.

Kalif Raymond Over/Under 3.5 Receptions

Who?!

If you’re struggling to identify who exactly this player is, that’s perfectly understandable. Raymond already has as many catches in six games this season (20) as he did in his previous five years in the National Football League combined.

But that’s the beauty of player props! Sportsbooks will cook up something for anyone, and Exhibit A, we have Raymond.

First off, this game has the right ingredients for an obscure No. 2 wide-out to leave his mark. Since it’s the Lions, we can expect them to fall into a sizable hole at some point, let alone against their former longtime quarterback in a hotly-anticipated Revenge Game scenario.

At the same time, this will also be a Revenge Game for Detroit quarterback Jared Goff, who might feel a bit slighted how everyone forgets he took the Rams to a Super Bowl (even if it was mostly his D).

Either way, I expect Goff to make his presence felt, and thus, the Lions should take it to the air quite often. That script will only amplify as the Rams build a lead.

And thus, we should get plenty of throws to our man of the hour, Raymond, seeing as how Detroit’s receiving depth is trash. He really is not, however, hence why he’s garnered at least six targets in three of the last four weeks. Hauling in four passes for the win isn’t really asking a lot at all.

Pick: OVER 3.5 Receptions (-115)