MLB Best Bets September 2nd: Yankees vs. Astros, White Sox vs. Twins Picks

It’s the unofficial start of fall. I can already see a few leaves turning, ugh. But there’s still plenty of MLB season left, so let’s find a couple of winners.

Season record: 6-3-1, +3.05 units

Yankees at Astros

Pick: Yankees ML (-115, BetRivers)

Yankees fans sometimes forget that even their best teams lost about 60 games a year. This 2025 club might not be among the all-time greats, but they’re still very good.

On ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, the announcers framed it like a problem that the Yankees rely so heavily on home runs. News flash: homers are really good. New York has hit 233 of them — by far the most in MLB — and, unsurprisingly, they also lead the league in runs scored (719).

Today they’ll see a tough lefty in Framber Valdez, but the Yankees’ offense has been the best in baseball against southpaws this season with a 118 wRC+ and .452 slugging percentage. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt and lefty Cody Bellinger all own a .399 wOBA or better against left-handers.

The Yankees counter with a lefty of their own in Max Fried. Houston’s lineup, which is extremely righty-heavy, also handles lefties well (110 wRC+). Their best hitter, Yordan Alvarez, has essentially no career split disadvantage — he’s actually slightly better against lefties (165 wRC+) than righties (161).

Valdez and Fried are nearly mirror images statistically. Valdez is 12-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; Fried is 14-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Both have career strikeout rates hovering around 23% and both keep the ball on the ground, with Valdez excelling as the extreme ground-ball specialist (2.5 launch angle in 2025, -0.5 career). Fried is a little better at limiting walks, 6.9% vs. 8.4%.

The Astros get the home field edge, but the Yankees’ lineup is better. I’ll roll with New York as a modest favorite.

White Sox at Twins

Pick: Over 9 (-115, BetMGM)

The Twins emptied their roster at the trade deadline, while the White Sox didn’t have much to begin with. So why the over? For starters … the starters.

Davis Martin has posted a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP since the break, with a 4.87 SIERA that suggests those numbers are right on target. That’s pretty much who he’s been all year: a 4.03 ERA pitcher who doesn’t miss bats (17.8% strikeout rate) and doesn’t generate soft contact (91.1 average exit velocity).

For Minnesota, Simeon Woods-Richardson has bounced between injuries, demotions and promotions as the Twins scramble for arms. What he hasn’t been is effective, with a 4.59 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.1% walk rate and 4.95 SIERA.

These are two bad teams, but the offenses aren’t completely punchless. Since the trade deadline, the White Sox own a 98 wRC+, while the Twins sit at 94. That’s close to league average.

Given the shaky starting pitching, I’ll take the over.