Best MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday September 24th: Top Baseball Betting Picks Today

Let’s change it up a little and look at some pitcher props today.

It’s a tricky week to analyze pitchers as teams with their playoff slots pretty set may shorten outings for SPs they plan to use. How deep will Matthew Boyd go for the Cubs tonight, e.g.? Likewise, non-contenders may hold back young pitchers or injury-risk guys (I’m looking at you, Ryan Weathers).

So I will stick with SPs that I am confident will see normal workloads.

Season Record: 15-13-2, +2.23 Units

Pirates at Reds

Hunter Greene Over 7.5 K’s (-147 DraftKings)

We get a nice Battle of Aces tonight as Paul Skenes goes for the Pirates vs. Hunter Greene of Cincinnati.

This is the last time we see Skenes on the mound in 2025, and I expect the Pirates will play it super cautiously with their ace. The Reds, on the other hand, have the 3rd Wild Card spot in their grasp and should let it rip with Greene.

His last outing was likely his best ever — he tossed a complete game one-hit, one-walk, 9 K shutout vs. the Cubs. In seven starts since returning from an extended IL stint, he has 52 strikeouts and a massive 32.5% K%. Batters have a huge 16.3% SwStr% against him in that span.

He gets a relatively easy task tonight as the Pirates are the 4th-easiest team to strike out with a 23.6% K%. They’re even worse on the road vs. righties at 24.7%.

Rockies at Mariners

Luis Castillo Over 6.5 K’s (⅕ Unit, -112 DraftKings)
Luis Castillo Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (½ Unit, -175 DraftKings)

You know who has a worse offense than the Pirates? The Rockies.

In general, they’re bad — but specifically, when you adjust for park factors, play on the road, and face righties, they’ve been dreadful. In that spot they’ve slashed an impossibly bad .203/.257/.333 with a 63 wRC+.

They face Luis Castillo tonight, and while he’s not the ace he once was, he’s still effective. He owns a 3.63 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this season. His 21.1% K%, 11.3 SwStr%, and 95.1 mph average fastball velocity are all career lows, but that’s actually kept his strikeout prop line reasonable.

Castillo enters on a bit of a roll with a 1.00 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last three starts. It’s only 14 Ks in 18 innings, but his 15.6% SwStr% suggests he should have whiffed more. He’s also better at home, with a 23.5% K% and 2.71 ERA.

Against this Rockies lineup, I like his chances of a strong outing — both for Ks and to go deep into the game.